Mulling real estate

It’s not that I’m against buying real estate, but for such a significant decision, I prefer to have as much objective information as I can. I’m very “left-brained”… and often a contrarian, much to the displeasure of many I talk to. :)

So it is with interest that I read http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_housing_bubble:

The popular notion that, unlike stocks, homes do not fall in value is believed to have contributed to the mania for purchasing homes. This assertion has been true for the United States as a whole since the Great Depression, and appears to be encouraged by the real estate industry. However, housing prices can move both up and down in local markets, as evidenced by the relatively recent price history in locations such as New York, Los Angeles, Boston, Japan, Vancouver, Sydney, and Hong Kong; large trends of up and down price fluctuations can be seen in many U.S. cities.

and:

Compounding the popular expectation that home prices do not fall, it is also widely believed that home values will yield average or better-than-average returns as investments. The investment motive for purchasing homes should not be conflated with the necessity of shelter that housing provides; an economic comparison of the relative costs of owning versus renting the equivalent utility of shelter can be made separately … Over the holding periods of decades, inflation-adjusted house prices have increased less than 1% per year.

I won’t contend with anyone about whether a particular neighbourhood is “bound to go up”, though; unsurprisingly, I’m not good at all at predicting how people will value a particular neighbourhood ten years hence.

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